Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. She shook her head at the high price of gas. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. He says hell vote for Trump. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. . Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. This is a high farming community.. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. . Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. I think it worked out without me.. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. He cares about the American people.. What you need to know, summarized in one email. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. I find that hard to believe. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. The counties are also mostly small and rural. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. He loves this country. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. Two states have announced recounts. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. Its just not that great, Paul said. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . They need to take care of the older people here. To accept cookies, click continue. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! Port Clinton, Ohio. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. We have become so divided. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. On . Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. You have to take the lesser of two evils. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. Please read our comments policy before commenting. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. The morale of the people up there is bad. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. We believe that there are two main reasons. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. This includes personalizing content and advertising. I think he is more for giving to the people.. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. Two states have announced recounts. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Theyre scared. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. I just want Trump in. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. Bremer County, Iowa I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. "If. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. That is a very good thing to have. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Right now, its horrible. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . . But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine We were as far down to five cooks last year. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. We need election reform.. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state..
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